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Bookings & cards analysis
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The 4.0 total-cards line refunded the stake in 17.7% of European league matches. Here is how whole, quarter and booking-point card lines settle.
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Backing every draw across 22 European divisions returned −6.2% at a major bookmaker. Serie B was the standout league, returning +4.0%.
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At the same draw price, home-favourite games drew 26.3% of the time against 25.9% with an away favourite, and the home-favourite draw lost less.
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At the same favourite price, the shortest third of draw prices drew 30.3% of the time against 25.6% for the longest. Is the market pricing that gap correctly?
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Teams priced under 1.50 win from behind at half-time in just 3.7% of games, fair odds 27.03. A study across 22 European divisions and 75,471 matches.
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When a football favourite fails to win, 52.9% of those failures are draws. I test whether 1X2 prices split draws and upsets correctly by price band.
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