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Sides priced under 1.40 scored before half-time 69.2% of the time across 75,530 European matches. Home, away and over 1.5 rates by win price.
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Across 150,946 team-matches, sides priced under 1.40 to win scored 3+ goals 45.9% of the time. Here's how team over 2.5 shifts with price and venue.
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A side scores in both halves 23.7% of the time, fair odds 4.22. I compare it with team over 1.5 and split the results by win price and venue.
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Sides win at least one half 51.4% of the time, far more often than they win the match. I test how much extra cover that buys at every 1X2 price.
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The 1X2 underdog scored in 64.4% of matches. I test how the Over 2.5 price changes that rate once the underdog's win price is held steady.
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