BTTS and Draw Bet: How Often a Score Draw Lands, League by League

Most people who back BTTS & Draw treat it as a draw bet with a small extra condition attached. I wanted to test that habit: how often does a match finish 1-1, 2-2 or higher, and does the league or the price tell you more? This study sits alongside my both teams to score tips page, and it answers a question I kept circling while watching tight, open matches twice over.

Across 75,484 matches, 26.2% were draws and 18.7% were score draws, which gives fair odds of 5.35. Both teams scored in 71.5% of all draws, so the 0-0 is a bigger leak than people expect. Within the score draws themselves, 1-1 made up 65.9%. The bet lives or dies on the 1-1.

Test 1League makes only a small difference to score draw rates

The Bundesliga led at 19.5% (fair odds 5.13), and the 11 lower divisions combined were close behind at 19.2%. At the bottom, Super League Greece managed 16.2%, with the Premier League and Primeira Liga also near the foot of the table. From top to bottom the spread is narrow, and most leagues sit within touching distance of the overall 18.7%.

The more useful column is the last one. Greece had a draw rate of 27.0%, one of the highest here, yet only 60.0% of those draws had both sides scoring. The Eredivisie drew less often at 23.5%, but 79.4% of its draws were score draws. A high draw rate and a high score draw rate are not the same thing.

For me, that is the first lesson. If you pick leagues for this bet by looking at how often they draw, you can end up somewhere full of goalless stalemates.

Test 2Even matches produce score draws about twice as often

This is where the real separation appears. With a heavy favourite priced Under 1.40, only 10.8% of matches ended as score draws. That climbs steadily through 16.5% and 19.1% to 20.2% in the 2.00–2.49 band, and peaks at 21.6% when the favourite is 2.50 or bigger.

It matches what I see on the pitch. A short-priced favourite either wins or does not concede, so the underdog rarely gets the goal it needs. In balanced matches, both sides commit bodies forward, and when one goes behind late the manager tends to chase rather than settle.

Price, not league, is the first filter I would apply. The gap between the extremes is far larger than anything in the league table.

Test 3The goal line decides whether a draw ends goalless

Here I split every draw by the Over 2.5 price. Where goals were expected, with Over 2.5 under 1.60, only 19.2% of draws were 0-0 and 35.1% were 2-2 or higher, across 1,787 draws. Where goals were not expected, with Over 2.5 at 2.50+, 38.7% of draws were 0-0, across 1,148 draws.

The 1-1 barely moves. It sat at 47.5% in the 1.80–1.99 band and 47.6% at 2.50+. What changes is the tail: the goal line trades 2-2s for 0-0s. That is why a draw price alone cannot price this bet, because the share of goalless draws shifts so much with the expected goals.

When I see a short Over 2.5 price and an evenly priced match together, that is the shape where a draw is most likely to carry goals.

Test 4Score draw rates held steady across ten seasons

Season by season, BTTS & Draw ranged only from 18.1% to 19.5% of matches, and the 0-0 from 6.8% to 8.2%. The lowest score draw season, 2020/21, was also the season with the most goalless matches, which makes sense to me. Matches that close down tend to do so in both directions.

The latest season, 2025/26, shows the highest score draw rate at 19.5% and the lowest 0-0 rate at 6.8%. Those are small movements, though, and I would not build anything on a single season's wobble.

One caveat matters throughout. Fair odds here are break-even prices built from past frequencies, not a forecast for any single match, and any bookmaker's price on this market carries a margin. The point of 5.35 or 5.13 is to have a yardstick to hold an offer against.

Written byEmily Marlowe

I'm Emily Marlowe, a football betting writer who specialises in BTTS markets, picking apart which matches genuinely lean toward goals at both ends.

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