BTTS No and the Result: Which Outcome Settles a BTTS No Bet?
BTTS No rarely means a goalless draw. It usually means someone wins to nil, and the favourite's price shows which side is most likely to do it.
A BTTS No bet only needs one side to fail to score. It says nothing about who wins, and the combined BTTS No & Result market is built on that gap. Alongside today's BTTS tips, I wanted a clean answer to a narrow question: when BTTS No lands, which result is usually carrying it, and what should that combination cost?
Across 75,484 matches in 22 divisions and 11 countries, BTTS No landed 47.7% of the time. Half of those winners, 50.5%, were home wins, while only 15.7% were 0-0. The short version is that BTTS No is mostly a clean-sheet win for someone, and the favourite's price is the best guide to whose.
Test 1Shorter favourites turn BTTS No into a clean-sheet win
This chart splits every match into four outcomes, grouped by the favourite's price. With a favourite under 1.40, BTTS No & favourite win made up 45.0% of matches, against 48.6% for BTTS Yes across 6,453 matches. The underdog winning to nil barely registers at 3.0%. I recognise that match shape: the strong side keeps the ball, pins the opponent deep, and the weaker team rarely gets the transitions it needs.
As the favourite's price drifts to 2.50+, the picture flattens. BTTS No & favourite win falls to 19.8%, the 0-0 share rises to 9.7% and the underdog's clean-sheet win climbs to 18.3%.
View the data: how a match settles btts no, by favourite price
| BTTS No & favourite win | BTTS No & 0-0 | BTTS No & underdog win | BTTS Yes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.40 | 45.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 48.6% |
| 1.40–1.69 | 35.4% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 51.7% |
| 1.70–1.99 | 29.4% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 52.5% |
| 2.00–2.49 | 23.4% | 8.4% | 15.0% | 53.2% |
| 2.50+ | 19.8% | 9.7% | 18.3% | 52.1% |
For a bettor, the useful detail is that BTTS Yes hardly moves across the bands. What changes is who keeps the clean sheet. In a close match, BTTS No is spread across several results rather than one dominant side, so attaching a result to it becomes much more of a guess.
Test 2The home price sets fair odds for each combination
Fair odds here are the break-even price implied by each hit rate. They are a benchmark, not a forecast. With the home side under 1.50, BTTS No & Home Win landed 43.8% of the time across 7,422 matches, which gives fair odds of 2.28. At the other end, with the home side at 3.50+, BTTS No & Away Win landed 32.2% at fair odds of 3.11, against 9.2% for the home version.
The middle is where I am most careful. With the home side at 2.00–2.49, BTTS No & Home Win landed 23.8% and the away version 14.8%, close to the all-match figures of 24.1% and 16.1%. In those games, nothing in the structure gives one side a clear reason to keep a clean sheet, and fair odds of 4.20 and 6.76 reflect that.
| Home price | Matches | No & Home | Fair | No & Away | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.50 | 7,422 | 43.8% | 2.28 | 3.6% | 27.78 |
| 1.50–1.99 | 19,181 | 31.1% | 3.22 | 9.7% | 10.31 |
| 2.00–2.49 | 20,991 | 23.8% | 4.20 | 14.8% | 6.76 |
| 2.50–3.49 | 17,684 | 17.2% | 5.81 | 20.8% | 4.81 |
| 3.50+ | 10,206 | 9.2% | 10.87 | 32.2% | 3.11 |
| All matches | 75,484 | 24.1% | 4.15 | 16.1% | 6.21 |
This is the main caveat. These are past frequencies, and a bookmaker's price for these combinations includes a margin. The only useful comparison is the offered price against the fair figure, and a fair figure should never be read as a promise. The price bands also mix higher- and lower-scoring leagues, so each league's own tempo still matters.
Test 3More than a third of BTTS No winners hang on one goal
This chart cools any enthusiasm. Of all BTTS No results, 37.5% finished 1-0 or 0-1, so a single goal from the trailing side would have turned each one into a losing bet. Another 15.7% were 0-0, 25.5% finished 2-0 or 0-2 and only 21.3% had a 3+ goal margin.
This is why I watch how a manager reacts when his side goes behind. A team chasing the game pushes its full-backs on and commits bodies forward. That is exactly when the consolation goal tends to arrive.
View the data: how close are btts no winners?
| Final scores of BTTS No matches, % of those matches | |
|---|---|
| 0-0 | 15.7% |
| 1-0 or 0-1 | 37.5% |
| 2-0 or 0-2 | 25.5% |
| 3+ goal margin | 21.3% |
Comfortable BTTS No wins are the minority. When I like the bet, I want a trailing side that struggles to raise its tempo, not just one that happens to be losing.
Lab verdict
| Short-priced home favourites | With the home side under 1.50, BTTS No & Home Win landed 43.8% at fair odds of 2.28. That gives the combination a structural case, but it is only worth backing when the offered price is longer than that benchmark. |
|---|---|
| Skip the even middle | With the home side at 2.00–2.49, the home and away versions landed 23.8% and 14.8%, close to the overall averages. The price alone tells you little about which side will keep the clean sheet. |
| Respect the one-goal margin | 37.5% of BTTS No winners were 1-0 or 0-1. Compare any BTTS No & Result price with the plain BTTS No price, and ask whether the extra return pays for that fragility. |
Questions bettors ask
How often does BTTS No win?
Across 75,484 matches, BTTS No landed 47.7% of the time. Most of those were clean-sheet wins rather than goalless draws.
What are fair odds for BTTS No and home win?
Across all matches, BTTS No & Home Win landed 24.1%, which gives fair odds of 4.15. With the home side under 1.50, the hit rate rose to 43.8% and fair odds shortened to 2.28.
How often is a BTTS No bet settled by a 0-0?
Only 15.7% of BTTS No winners were 0-0. By comparison, 50.5% were home wins.
I'm Emily Marlowe, a football betting writer who specialises in BTTS markets, picking apart which matches genuinely lean toward goals at both ends.
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